Zoltán Massay-Kosubek

“If you want to make your dreams come true, the first thing you have to do is wake up.” ~J.M. Power

1. Does Europe Need a “European New Deal”?

(photo © European Parliament)

Europe is struggling under the continuous pressure of the economic and financial crisis. The French-German stewardship followed a strict austerity policy in order to reduce the huge amount of state deficit. Since the economic situation didn’t improve so far, an alternative way of crisis-handling emerged promising economic growth through investments. After the socialist victory in the French presidential elections, the question is still open whether the new French policy approach could generate economic growth. If the socialist-fashioned political leadership gains majority in most of the Member States, the whole European crisis management will turn to a completely new direction.

2. What is the Fate of the Euro?

(photo © EuImages of money)

The Euro is one of the most important symbols of the European Integration. If it failed, the whole integration would fail and Europe would remain only a free-change economic zone. Through the Golgotha of Greece, the weaknesses of the euro-zone came out (a monetary union without a fiscal union). Therefore, it is clear that no common currency is imaginable without some level of economic governance in the future. Nevertheless, Greece has chosen another way on the last parliamentary elections and it is highly questionable, if it could maintain the euro after the results of the upcoming new elections.

Comment: May I draw the attention to a legal aspect of the country’s potential leave from the euro-zone. Such a move would probably need the appropriate change of the primary law of the Union which would imply a formal Treaty change. This legal process would require a long and complicated procedure involving every Member States the outcome is questionable of.

3. What European Perspective Will the EU Give to its Neighbourhood (Balkan, Turkey and the Mediterranean Region, Eastern Partnership)?

(Official photo opportunity of the Eastern Partnership Summit, 30 September 2011 © President of the European Council)

There are several potential EU candidate countries in the Balkan region (not to mention the already in-door country Croatia). We may not forget that this region gave place to several bloody armed conflicts in the past (Srebrenica, Vukovar).

Turkey is another key-player for Europe who has been provided with a candidate status for a half century without having the real opportunity to join the EU in the near future. Turkey might serve as some kind of facilitator or focus point between the EU and the Arab Spring hit Mediterranean region.

Last, but not least the 6 countries of the Eastern Partnerships deserve special attention. We can find among them the last remaining dictatorship of Europe (Belorussia) and the most important power due its size – (Ukraine – see further details about the Tymosenko-case here). Nevertheless, the European or Asian future of these 6 countries is still pending since they are currently balancing between the EU and Russia.

I remain at your disposal.

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Related earlier updates:

The Final ‘Extraordinary’ Summit (the 24th /22th/18th since 2008) to Discuss Principles Intending to Achieve Growth and to Overcome the Deep Crisis. Is Greece on the Dinner Menu?

Die Zukunft von Europa – L’avenir de l’Europe – The Future of Europe

Thoughts on the possible future accession of Iceland to the EU

National Minorities and the Long Term Future of the European Integration

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  1. The original comment has been made to the earlier version fof the blog and it has been copied without any changes from here: http://massay.kosubek.zoltan.dinstudio.com/diary_1_29.html

    “6/15/2012 11:42:25 AM – Zoltan MASSAY-KOSUBEK, zoltanmassaykosubek@yahoo.com , about.me/zoltanmassaykosubek
    (Following an interesting debqte on Euractive website, I decided to copy the substantial part of one of my comments made. It may have an added value)

    Somebody mentioned that the EU is put policy before economy and that is the source of problems.

    May I recall the fact that the EU was at the beginning an economic instead of a political project

    (Remark: Yes, as it’s well known, we celebrate on 9th May the treaty of Paris and the french-german peace process. However, the accent was on economic benefits and these economic benefits motivated the creation of the European (later Communities). The ECONOMIC benfefits motivated the UK to apply for the EU membership, either. Later on, the several communities merged as European ECONOMIC Community)

    Since UK lost its colonies and its economy was declining during the 60s/70s, it was a logical step for the country to “catch the EC train” and join the EEC. For those who suggest that Europe should prefer the EFTA (originally created by the UK) to the EU, may I kindly point at the EFTA in its current status: with some exceptions, the EFTA states became EU member-states – including the UK – and a large part of the EU law is applicable to the European Economic Area (EEC = EU + EFTA). Which means that in special cases, even the EFTA member states (Switzerland + Lichtenstein, Norway, Iceland) accept the prevailence of EU law without having the possibility to decide on it.

    As regards politics: yes, Europe is today more than a simple economic co-operation and it became a political project. The treaty of Maastricht expanded the community method to other policies (environment, transport, energy etc), and R&D is in the heart of the EU politics.

    Ex. the Schengen area is one of the main political achievments of the EU and I am not sure if the majority of European would live in a Europe cut by borders again.

    Every country has its own resources, but none can deny the successes of the Nordic countries. Iceland is a good example for that. It seems that after the Icesave, Iceland started its economic recovery sooner than expected. And yes, the euro may lead to a political union but it won’t be an obligatory one. It will be a political decision and each EU Member State will have the possibility to chose whether or not going through this pathway. If the price of this will be the two-speed Europe: let it be.

    If a country will leave the EU/eurozone (UK?/EL?) or even don’t want to join it (NO/IS), my answer is clear: the doors are open. No country is forced to stay in the Union. Let’s make a democratic decision about it and do what must be done. It is up to the governments and to the people via referendum to decide as they did it already in the past.

    As regards UK:

    This picture speaks volumes: Margaret Thatcher and Conservatives say YES to Europe:


    eurosceptic UK think-thank rejects withdrawal from EU


    As regards Icland, I refer to my earlier discussion about it:

    Mr Zoltán MASSAY-KOSUBEK – EU policy expert


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